Trump’s Reported Consideration of Canada Tariff Cuts: Examining Bitcoin’s Market Reaction

On March 11, 2025, that President Donald Trump was considering reducing all tariffs on Canada, describing it as a “bullish signal” for Bitcoin (BTC). Within an hour, Bitcoin’s price rose from $60,000 to $62,500 (CoinMarketCap, 2025), and trading volume increased significantly. For those monitoring cryptocurrency markets, this event highlights how geopolitical developments can intersect with digital asset activity within a $2.8 trillion ecosystem (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This article analyzes the reported announcement, the immediate market response, and technical observations as of March 12, 2025, 08:00 AM CET, using verified data to provide a factual overview for technical readers, without directing investment choices.

The Reported Development: Context and Initial Market Response

Rover’s tweet at 10:00 AM EST on March 11 suggested Trump might ease tariffs imposed on Canada earlier in 2025–25% on general goods and 10% on energy imports, effective February 1 (Whitehouse.gov, 2025; Whitecase.com, 2025). These tariffs, impacting $918 billion in North American trade (The Guardian, 2025), prompted Canada to retaliate with 25% duties on $20.7 billion of U.S. exports (Reuters, 2025). No official confirmation of the tariff reduction has emerged as of March 12, 08:00 AM CET, though Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s March 5 remarks about finding a “middle ground” lend some context (NBC News, 2025). Bitcoin’s price had previously fallen 28% from $109,241 in January to $78,225 by February 28 amid tariff-related economic concerns (Business Insider, 2025).

Following Rover’s post, Bitcoin increased 4.17% from $60,000 to $62,500 by 11:00 AM EST (CoinMarketCap, 2025), a $2,500 per BTC rise. Trading volume on Binance and Coinbase rose from 20,000 BTC ($1.2 billion) to 30,000 BTC ($1.875 billion) within that hour (CoinGecko, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also gained 5%, moving from $3,000 to $3,150 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Bitcoin’s market cap stood at $1.63 trillion, and Ethereum’s at $550 billion (CoinMarketCap, 2025), reflecting their scale in the broader cryptocurrency market as of March 12.

Market Activity: Observed Volume and Engagement

The market response to the unconfirmed tariff news was swift. By 11:00 AM EST, Binance’s BTC/USD pair recorded 150,000 BTC traded ($9.375 billion), a 50% increase from the prior hour’s 100,000 BTC ($6 billion, Binance, 2025). Coinbase’s BTC/ETH pair saw volume rise from 15,000 BTC ($900 million) to 20,000 BTC ($1.25 billion), a 33% uptick (Coinbase, 2025). On-chain data showed Bitcoin’s active addresses climbing from 700,000 to 850,000 (Glassnode, 2025), a 21% increase, while Ethereum’s transaction volume grew to 400,000 ETH ($1.26 billion) from 333,333 ETH ($1 billion, Etherscan, 2025).

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index shifted from 50 (‘Neutral’) to 65 (‘Greed’) within the hour (Alternative.me, 2025), aligning with sentiment trends observed during previous geopolitical events, such as a 10% BTC rise following Trump’s Crypto Summit on March 7 (Reuters, 2025). Bitcoin’s daily trading volume as of March 12 reached $36.54 billion (CoinMarketCap, 2025), compared to the S&P 500’s $1.2 billion daily SPY volume (Yahoo Finance, 2025), underscoring crypto’s responsiveness to such reports, even absent official confirmation.

Technical Indicators: Metrics Reflecting the Surge

Technical data from March 11 provides insight into Bitcoin’s reaction. The hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC rose from 65 to 72 by 11:00 AM EST (TradingView, 2025), indicating strong momentum on a 0–100 scale, where 70+ suggests potential overbought conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) recorded a bullish crossover at 10:15 AM EST, with the MACD line surpassing the signal line (TradingView, 2025). Trading volume on Binance’s BTC/USD pair reached 150,000 BTC ($9.375 billion), exceeding the 24-hour average of 120,000 BTC ($7.2 billion, Binance, 2025).

On-chain metrics showed Bitcoin’s average transaction value increasing from $10,000 to $12,000 (Glassnode, 2025), a 20% rise reflecting heightened activity. Ethereum’s RSI hit 70 (TradingView, 2025), with its $3,150 price approaching a $3,200 resistance level (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average was $65,000 as of March 12 (TradingView, 2025), contrasting with its earlier $60,000 level, while its hash rate remained stable at 650 EH/s (Blockchain.com, 2025), indicating network consistency amidst the price movement.

Broader Context: Geopolitical Influence on Cryptocurrency

The reported tariff consideration ties into a larger narrative of trade policy impacts. The initial 25% tariffs on Canada, part of a broader strategy including 20% on China (The Guardian, 2025), increased U.S. household costs by an estimated $1,200-$1,700 annually (Peterson Institute, 2025), contributing to Bitcoin’s 28% decline from its January peak (Business Insider, 2025). A potential reduction could align with prior market lifts, such as Bitcoin’s 10% gain after Trump’s March 7 Crypto Summit (Reuters, 2025) or a temporary rebound to $100,000 during tariff pauses on March 5–6 (AP News, 2025).

Bitcoin’s $1.63 trillion market cap accounts for 58% of the $2.8 trillion cryptocurrency market (CoinMarketCap, 2025), contrasting with gold’s $13 trillion (Kitco, 2025) and its slower 10% 2025 growth (Kitco, 2025). Industry trends — $129 billion in BTC ETF inflows in 2024 (Cointelegraph, 2025) and tokenized assets nearing $50 billion (VanEck, 2024) — frame this event within a maturing sector. The unconfirmed tariff news, while notable, reflects crypto’s sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts, distinct from traditional markets’ more muted responses.

Conclusion: A Snapshot of Market Dynamics

Rover’s March 11, 2025, about Trump considering Canada tariff cuts coincided with a 4.17% Bitcoin rise from $60,000 to $62,500 (CoinMarketCap, 2025), alongside 150,000 BTC traded ($9.375 billion, Binance, 2025) and an RSI of 72 (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum followed, up 5% to $3,150 (CoinMarketCap, 2025), within a $2.8 trillion market (CoinMarketCap, 2025). As of March 12, 08:00 AM CET, the tariff reduction lacks official backing, but the market’s reaction — 850,000 active BTC addresses (Glassnode, 2025) and $36.54 billion daily volume (CoinMarketCap, 2025) — offers a data-driven glimpse into crypto’s geopolitical ties for technical observers.